julia gillard and tony abbot

Election 2013 – The Certainty of Stalling Progress

 

With the PM announcing what amounts to an eight month election campaign on the grounds of “certainty” the only sure outcome of the political gamble is that real policy making, economic reform and necessary infrastructure development will stall until after the election.

In an election environment the government will be trying to bolster the traditional Labor base whilst also attempting to attract Green votes carried by social and environmental issues.

In the meanwhile any proposals for necessary economic reform or major infrastructure improvement, by either side, will be attacked by a myriad of counter arguments. The result being that, unless the campaign becomes an obvious walkover for the opposition, business will be unsure of exactly what will happen on September 14. In such a hyper politically charged atmosphere, business will most likely put off major investment decisions.

The PM is gambling on Tony Abbot and the Coalition falling over themselves, for which there is ample opportunity. She is also ensuring that all leadership speculation, on either side, is now at an end as each team delivers the loyalty necessary for a campaign. 

In the mean time, the battle for the crucial seats in western Sydney (which is to the Australian Federal Election as Ohio is to the American Presidential Election) will see the Labor social engineers come out in force. Will this work in an increasingly aspirational Australia? On the other hand, will Tony Abbott be able to overcome his lack of personal connection with large sections of the electorate?  We shall see!

The Federal/State divide is also likely to create policy and administrative sclerosis during such an extended campaign.

With all the major States in Coalition hands the blame game that has been running for some time will only intensify.  In support of their coalition colleagues, the State Governments of QLD, NSW, VIC and WA have every reason to frustrate anything Federal Labor proposes.

As a political move the PM may have caught her opponents on the hop, but she has also given them ample time to marshal their arguments and resources. Sadly, the impact of all of this on the Australian economy may well be to slow growth as we have experienced on previous occasions.

Real certainty in this whole process could come if both sides agreed to put a referendum to the nation on September 14 for fixed four-year terms. At least then we may get three out of four years of meaningful government rather than the current maximum of 2 out of 3. 

construction crane at sunset

Time is right for Vics to lead the way on PPPs

 

The Victorian government announced a number of major infrastructure projects late last year that are likely to play a vital role in the future economic performance of the state.

Top of the list is the East West link, connecting the Eastern Freeway with the Western Ring Road. But there is also the $1.6 billion investment in expanding the capacity of the Port of Melbourne, the development of the Port of Hastings, the Melbourne Metro rail project, the additional rail line between Dandenong and the city, the expansion of Avalon to become our second international airport and the third runway for the Melbourne Airport.

All of them are important to addressing the projected growth of Victoria’s population, the growth in regional Victoria and in closing the gap in service standards in public transport, schools, hospitals and libraries.

But they also need a new approach to Public Private Partnerships. Given the relative inefficiencies of governmental infrastructure, it is understandable that there is cynicism on any governmental role in infrastructure. However, this should not mean that government cannot play an effective role in promoting a world-class infrastructure system.

Victoria has the opportunity to show the private sector that it understands the importance of efficient private sector investment as central to commercially viable infrastructure. But if it adopts the approach of an infrastructure venture capitalist, infrastructure is doomed to fail.

The Federal Coalition’s policy at the last 2010 election advocated for a greater private involvement in Infrastructure.  This policy can be enhanced, especially with appropriate concessional tax treatment.

But it is a sound basis for an instructive government to play a crucial role in an efficient public private partnership approach where large scale infrastructure projects are run by the private sector, but funded through government securities. The call by the President of the Business Council of Australia, Tony Shepherd, for long-term (30 years) guaranteed indexed bonds is also worthy of consideration. He believes they would be attractive to mums and dads and super funds and this may well be the case.

Time is ticking…

RM

Australian Flag

2013 – the election year we have to have

 

With 2012 now behind us, attention is being focused on timing of the Federal election.

The message coming out of the Labor Caucus is: the later the better.

There are two cogent reasons for this. First, the Prime Minister needs as much time as possible to turn around the poll results. Unless something radical happens to change the outlook, improving the polls will take many months – if, indeed, it can be done.

The second reason is that the Labor backbenchers don’t  want to consider an early poll because their jobs are on the line. The polls would indicate at this stage that the ALP is on a hiding to nothing. Better to string out the salaries and expenses for as long as possible.

If there is a coup and the Prime Minister is deposed, a new leader – it would almost certainly be Kevin Rudd – would need time to establish (or in his case re-establish) credentials.

In fact, when Rudd was expected to take over late in August, the word was he wanted the deed done as quickly as possible so he would have at least 12 months up his sleeve. A leadership change now would leave him well short of that.

The theory that the Prime Minister would want to call an early poll to avoid having to bring down another budget doesn’t hold water.

Having insisted for the past couple of years the Government would bring down a surplus in 2012-13, the Prime Minister and Treasurer Swan are rapidly distancing themselves from that commitment. If an early election was in prospect, why would they bother?

The only wild card in election timing is if Rudd resumes the Prime Ministership and decides to call a snap election on a whim to take advantage of the honeymoon period granted all new leaders.

Based on the evidence surrounding the aborted coup in August, this seems unlikely. And the backbench wouldn’t forgive him for that.

GO

Australian Flag

Victorian politics: spot the future leader

The Victorian election is just two years away. For those with an abiding interest in Victorian politics and establishing and maintaining dialogue with the State Government, now is the time to develop relationships with parliamentarians who are destined for higher office.

If the Baillieu Government retains office after the 2014 election, there will inevitably be changes in the ministry. Another reason to take a close interest in rising stars is that there could perhaps be a ministerial reshuffle before the next State election.

At this stage, we have confined our interest to the parliamentary Liberal Party. We shall look at the ALP and the National Party later on.

The Libs have several members outside the present ministry that look to have what it takes to make it into cabinet. We have identified four in the Legislative Assembly and two in the Legislative Council, but there may be more. We shall discuss them as we find them.

The two Upper House members that present themselves are Ed O’Donohue and Andrea Coote. Both are Parliamentary Secretaries (which is effectively a traineeship for a Ministry). Andrea is Parliamentary Secretary for Families and Community Services and Ed is Parliamentary Secretary for Transport. Both work hard, keep themselves well informed and are very articulate.

Andrea was close to Peter Costello. Because of tension between Baillieu and Costello, this nexus became an issue while the Libs were in Opposition, but it appears that at least some of the fences have been mended. Andrea is MLC for Southern Metropolitan.

Ed O’Donohue is still young but he has excellent presence and interpersonal skills. Ed is MLC for Eastern Victoria.

In the lower house, Heidi Victoria (MLA for Bayswater) is Parliamentary Secretary to the Premier and Parliamentary Secretary assisting the Premier with the Arts. She has impressed everyone we know with whom she has had dealings. She is strong, well-networked, efficient and very much on top of the job.

Gary Blackwood (MLA for Narracan) is Parliamentary Secretary for Forestry and Fisheries. David Southwick is the Member for Caulfield. Both are well regarded. David coordinates the interface between sitting members and the policy forums inside the Liberal Party. This is a complex and delicate job and he does it well.

A recent entrant into parliament is Andrew Katos, Member for South Barwon. Andrew is very energetic and an excellent networker. It’s early days, but – providing the Liberal Party can retain government – Andrew is a candidate for promotion.

The Libs need to win a second term and that is by no means assured. However, it never hurts to be aware of potential state leaders and look at opportunities to develop appropriate relationships.

GO